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Santa Fe State of the Market – 1st Quarter 2009

May 2009

 

            After a long winter of cold, snow, and gray days it’s refreshing that spring is finally settling in.  After several false starts, fruit trees and flowering shrubs are beginning to fully bud, mountain snow melt is getting underway, and jackets are shed once the sun comes out. 

 

           While nationally there are cautious signs of an economic spring emerging, the Santa fe real estate market is still somewhat frozen.  Inventory levels are about even with 3rd quarter ’08 while average days on the market have risen from 164 to 185 days and absorption rates have inched higher.   Given the economic climate, residential sales, however, fell 35% this quarter as compared with 1st quarter ’08.

 

                                               Residential Inventory and Sales

                                                     1st Quarter 2009

                                               Santa Fe City and County

                           Inventory

 

Price Range

# Current Listings

Price/sqft

DOM

Under $250,000

295

$190

155

$250,000 – $500,000

631

$233

166

$500,001 – $750,000

358

$292

156

$750,000 – $1,000,000

241

$313

177

$1,000,001 – $2,000,000

244

$408

199

$2,000,001  and Above

90

$564

258

TOTAL OF  ALL RANGES

1859

$333

185

 

                                              Sales & Pending                             

                       

Price Range

Total Units Sold

Pending

Sales Price

Average DOM**

List/Sale

Ask $/sqft

Sold Av $/sqft

Under $250,000

59

38

$191,830

174

95.62%

$171

$162

$250,000 – $500,000

67

58

$370,000

183

92.40%

$222

$207

$500,001 – $750,000

34

20

$620,000

214

95.30%

$260

$243

$750,000 – $1,000,000

16

5

$863,000

316

95.80%

$295

$272

$1,000,001 – $2,000,000

13

9

$1,391,000

230

88.30%

$330

$332

$2,000,001  and Above

1

2

$2,350,000

110

90.00%

$571

$416

TOTAL OF  ALL RANGES

190

132

$964,305

205

92.90%

$308

$272

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**DOM= Days on Market

 

 

 

 

 

                

 

 

 

 

                                                 Residential Absorption Rates

                                                    Santa Fe City / County

                                                          1st Quarter 2009

 

 

Price Range

# Sold Past 12 Mo

# Sold/Month

Mo. Inventory

Under $250,000

282

23.50

12.55

$250,000 – $500,000

491

40.92

15.42

$500,001 – $750,000

198

16.50

21.70

$750,000 – $1,000,000

90

7.50

32.13

$1,000,001 – $2,000,000

96

8.00

30.50

$2,000,001  and Above

24

2.00

45.00

Total of All Ranges

1181

16.40

26.22

 

 

Other noticeable changes since 1st quarter ’08 include a widening of the spread between asking and sales prices and a dropping of the average price/sqft. Of course,  the statistics of each specific neighborhood may vary from the average somewhat but here is a snapshot of two popular areas to give a flavor of what has been transpiring:

 

 

    1st Quarter Year to Date Comparisons – ’08-‘09

 

 

LAS CAMPANAS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

Units Available

Total Units Sold

Pending

Average List Price

Sales Price

Average DOM**

List/Sale

Ask $/sqft

Sold Av $/sqft

2009

137

10

2

$1,347,000

$959,500

237

93.40%

$309

$299

2008

Unknown

8

 

$1,232,000

$1,226,000

349

  97.5%

 $385

$385

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HISTORIC EASTSIDE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

Units Available

Total Units Sold

Pending

Average List Price

Sales Price

Average DOM**

List/Sale

Ask $/sqft

Sold Av $/sqft

2009

63

2

1

$1,662,115

$1,270,000

217

93.36%

$519

$512

2008

Unknown

7

2

$1,276,000

$1,234,000

233

90.8%

 $592

$542

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We recently began tracking a new parameter that provides perspective on sales momentum by following the number of listings taken vs listings sold within the time period.  It is sobering from a seller’s view point as only 27.20% of listings taken in the quarter have sold.  It speaks for the need for sellers to price their properties very attractively relative to competing inventory as well as making their home’s aesthetics shine. (It is important to note that historically sales are slower in the 1st quarter relative to later quarters and subsequently this parameter should improve as the year progresses).

 

 

Residential Listings Taken VS. Listings Sold

Santa Fe City/County

1st Quarter ‘09

 

 

 

 

Av. Dom

Av Price

Av List/Sale

% Sold

Total Inventory

1859

185

 

 

 

Listings Taken:

669

68

$637,863

 

 

Listings Sold

182

190

$506,735

90.00%

27.20%

 

 

Continuing the trend of previous quarters, land sales continue to suffer far more than the residential market.   Inventory remains high at 1020 parcels with only 25 sales year to date.

 

 

Residential Land Inventory and Sales

Santa Fe City/County

01/01/09 0 03/31/09

 

 

Price Range

Current Listings

Average Price

Average DOM**

Total Units Sold

Average Price

Average Sales Price

Average DOM**

% List/Sold

Under $100,000

75

$78,800

189

3

$80,933

$70,000

84

80.81%

$100,001 – $199,999

301

$161,400

276

11

$153,755

$141,364

351

90.64%

$200,000 – $299,999

304

$251,000

378

7

$272,000

$245,000

206

85.63%

$300,000 – $399,999

151

$355,000

438

3

$351,000

$311,000

254

83.74%

$400,000 – $499,999

68

$457,000

391

2

$510,000

$420,000

374

69.75%

$500,000 – $749,999

65

$635,000

445

0

$0

$0

0

0.00%

$750,00 – $999,000

30

$844,000

451

0

$0

$0

0

0.00%

$1,000,000 and Above

26

$2,300,000

299

0

$0

$0

0

0.00%

TOTAL OF  ALL RANGES

1020

$635,275

358

26

$170,961

$148,421

159

82.11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Land  Listings Taken VS. Listings Sold

Santa Fe City/County

01/01/09 – 03/31/09

 

 

 

Av. Dom

Av Price

Av List/Sale

% Sold

Total Inventory

1020

 

 

 

 

Listings Taken:

180

71

$327,000

 

 

Listings Sold

25

265

$198,260

82.11%

13.89%

 

 

 

Everyday we are exposed to a wide variety of opinions as to where real estate markets are headed in 2009:

 

Home Price Outlook Clouded by Disagreement                 

Source: The Wall Street Journal (4/24/09)

             

                                                                                Housing Analysts Predict the Bottom Is Near
                                                           
Source: The Wall Street Journal, June Fletcher (04/24/2009)

National Housing Picture Tough to Determine

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dawn Wotapka (04/23/2009)      

 

 

 

While Santa Fe has weathered the storm fairly well overall,  its clear that our market now offers the most attractive buying opportunities seen in years.  If the current government stimulus plan results in high inflation a year or two out, real estate, especially if financed at historically low interest rates, could prove to be a positive hedge.  In the interim, we will be tracking the market and continue to keep you informed each quarter on where things are going.

 

As always, please don’t hesitate to contact us should you like to discuss the market and/or how it might specifically effect your property or any potential buying decisions.

 

 

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